7-day Forecast. Starting Monday 05/02/2018

Here’s a piccy of an approaching wintry shower. What’s it going to be then eh? hail? sleet? snow?

MONDAY

The NE’ly wind will feel colder and colder as the day progresses. It will also maintain a steady stream of showers from Kent, through Cherbourg and on to the Channel Islands. Many of these showers will pass just south of Guernsey, but we will also get hit by a few of them too. As the air gets colder, the showers will turn increasingly from rain to soft hail or sleet.

Town will actually be one of the coldest spots in this particular airflow. Those who are keen to go out for a walk or a run will find the best shelter around Petit Port, or Jaonnet Bay.

Winds: Force 4-6 NE’ly.

Temperatures: 3-5C throughout (but feeling as though it’s sub-zero).

Tides: High of 9m at 9:50am, low of 1.5m at 4:20pm.

TUESDAY

The wind will back to a due N’ly, causing that line of showers to back off to the east. This means we will probably stay dry through the morning but, by lunchtime, a fresh crop of showers will have developed, which will approach us directly from the Dorset direction. Once again, these showers will start off mainly as rain, but turn increasingly wintry. By the evening, some of them should certainly be falling as snow. What is much less certain, is how many of them will actually hit us.

Therefore, my expectation is that some people (in the higher parishes) will probably enjoy a few flurries, but the whiteness we are most likely to wake up to on Wednesday will just be hoar-frost.

Winds: Force 5-6 N’ly.

Temperatures: 3-5C throughout (but feeling as though it’s sub-zero).

Tides: High of 8.4m at 10:30am, low of 2.3m at 4:50pm.

WEDNESDAY

The N’ly wind will maintain it’s cold airflow, but it shouldn’t feel nearly as bitter, because it is expected to be a much lighter breeze than on the previous days. A good dose of sunshine ought to have melted any ice or frost by late morning, and then the afternoon should be full of classic crisp winter sunshine.

Winds: Force 4-5 N’ly through the morning, easing to force 2-3 through the afternoon.

Temperatures: Max 6C, min 1C.

Tides: High of 7.7m at 11am, low of 2.9m at 5:30pm.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

Thursday morning should start off encrusted in a thick frost, so watch out for slippery surfaces. The rest of the day should have pleasantly light breezes but it will probably be cloudier than on Wednesday.

Going into Friday, we will probably go back to the more typically wet scenario, with a band of heavy rain swinging across the islands during the morning. After that, it should be sunny for a few hours before we see the return of showers. Temperatures will be up to about 8C by this time, so it certainly won’t feel warm, but any hopes of snow will be long gone.

THE WEEKEND

The current suggestion from forecast models, is that Friday’s horrible weather should have been replaced by something dry, partly sunny and relatively mild. With light and variable breezes on Saturday and a gentle SW’ly on Sunday, we should see max temps of  9C on Saturday and 11C on Sunday.

This all sounds very pleasant, but these are days 6 and 7 of the forecast period, so bare in mind that the story might well change between now and then.

The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening.