Thanks to Martin Ogier for sending this piccy in. Would you get out of the car to go and surf Pembroke, on a gale-force NE’ly with a windchill that makes 7C feel more like zero? (Too right!)
Dry but mostly cloudy. This means that the temperature will be very steady and unfortunately the wind is going to make it feel much cooler again. However, it should reduce slightly between dawn and sunset, giving us a slight hint of the calmer conditions that are soon to come.
Winds: Force 6 ENE’ly at first, veering to force 5 E’ly through the morning, perhaps reducing to force 4 at times through the afternoon, then veering to force 4-5 ESE’ly during the night.
Temperatures: 7C during the daytime, falling to 5C overnight.
Tides: High at 11am, low at 5:30pm (medium sized tides).
Weather-wise, daylight hours will offer very little difference from Monday. However, a wind change to a slightly gentler SSE’ly will bring milder air over the islands.
Furthermore, the west-coast surf should be beautifully clean, with waves steadily increasing from 2-4 feet between about 9am and 3pm.
Going into the evening, things will start to become unsettled again, with a rather nasty looking weather-front expected to sweep through. After that has cleared, light sleepers might still be awoken by the drumming of a quick hail-shower or two, between midnight and dawn
Winds: Force 4-5 SSE’ly, increasing to force 6 during the early evening before finally veering to a force 3-4 WSW’ly overnight.
Temperatures: Daytime max 9-10C, overnight min 8-9C.
Tides: High at 11:50am, low at 6:30pm (medium sized tides).
After a rather lively night, we will probably have an unexpectedly fine day. Isolated heavy showers will be dotted around our region, but the odds of actually getting hit by them will be quite small.
In between these tall shower-clouds, there should be plenty of blue sky and sunshine, which should feel really pleasant thanks to the lightness of the breeze.
Surfers! Look out for clean 6-8 foot bombs at all your favourite west-coast reefs, between about 9:30 and 4pm.
Winds: Force 4-5 W’ly at first, becoming variable force 2-3 through the morning and afternoon, then sprucing up to a force 5-6 SE’ly overnight.
Temperatures: Daytime max 9C, Overnight min 6-7C.
Tides: Lows at 6:50am and 7:20pm, high at 12:50pm (small tides).
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
With a pretty-much NE’ly airflow through Thursday, we can expect a day of bubbly cloud, with plenty of spaces for bright sunshine to beam through. There could be a shower or two in the vicinity, but they probably won’t make impact with the islands.
Friday will then see a complete switch to a SSE’ly airflow as a large Atlantic low-pressure system sidles up beside us. This will also allow a thin veil of high cloud to spread over us through the morning, gradually becoming thicker and darker through the afternoon, before giving us a thorough soaking during the night.
Surf-wise, this means further excellence; Thursday could produce some gems along the south coast and Friday along the west, all in the region of 4-6 feet.
Friday night’s weather front, and a further one behind it, look set to make very slow progress across our region. Therefore we can probably expect a healthy portion of rain over the weekend, and very little change of airflow from a fresh to strong S’ly or SW’ly.
On the plus side the weather fronts might well weaken whilst in situ, thus turning into isolated showers and allowing some sunshine to filter through. Furthermore; surfers, windsurfers and kite-surfers should all be in for some really epic conditions, with west-coast waves in the 6-8 foot range through both afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening.