7-day Fòrecast. Starting Monday 15/10/2018

A big thanks to Islandmums Family Club for sponsoring my forecasts
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And also a very big thank you to Paul Marries for this cracking shot of how Storm Callum affected our little corner of the British Isles.

MONDAY

WEATHER
Ooh dear, well Sunday’s Forecast went a bit wrong eh. Not surprising, when it was written on a Thursday and there are two ex-hurricanes in the Atlantic. I’m afraid they are rather unwieldy beasts, and small changes in their movements spell big differences for our Weather, even when they don’t come into direct contact with us.
Monday no longer looks sunny anymore, but it won’t be as soggy as Sunday has been. Rather we are in for a cloudy affair, with occasional spots of light drizzle at worst and perhaps some mist at times.
The wind will be a force 4-5 NE’ly, which is generally not a bad direction for hill-fog, so hopefully the murk will not be sufficient to disrupt any flights.

TIDE AND SURF
The tides have moderated considerably in size now, so the high will only be 7.8m at 10:50am, followed by a low of 3.2m at 5:10pm. The surf will also be a bit of a comedown from last week. However, it will still be a respectable 3 feet on the west coast. It will be a little messed up by the wind there though, so maybe there will be something a bit nicer down at Petit Port around lunchtime.

TUESDAY

WEATHER
Another fairly cloudy and semi-murky day. This time with a force 3 WSW’ly which is generally more prone to mist and hill fog. However, the cloud will probably be too thin to produce any drizzle, so again, I think flight disruption is very unlikely; rather just a bit of harmless grey sky.

TIDE AND SURF
Smaller tides again, with high water at 11:50am and low water at 5:50pm. The west-coast surf should be pretty good actually at about 4 feet, with the cross-shore breeze not strong enough to mess it up. The reefs will probably serve up the best session during the middle of the day.

WEDNESDAY

WEATHER
Ooh this is a tricky day to forecast, as a band of rain is expected to approach from the west, and then return in that direction, as a high pressure system moves in and the airflow switches from a SW’ly to a NE’ly.
This means we could be in for another cloudy day or possibly a sunny one, depending how close that band if rain comes. There is a chance that we might even get wet. However, at this stage, I think that is unlikely, because computer models are generally leaning towards the more sunny scenario.
My next update should hopefully speak with a bit more certainty.

TIDE AND SURF
Winds should be super light all day, so the 5 foot surf should be lovely and clean for the majority of the day. Furthermore, the tidal range will be tiny, with barely any difference between the lunchtime high and the dinner-time low.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

Two lovely sunny days, but no great heat. Not like that toasty Saturday we just had. This time the sunshine will come with a moderate ENE’ly wind, which will keep temperatures fairly close to sea-temps, so that’s about 16C for the max. Overnight however, winds might fall a bit lighter and we might drop into single figures.
The west coast surf should keep on providing, with waves generally in the 4 foot range, thanks to storms that have been out in the mid-Atlantic through the week. Tiny tidal range again on both days, with lows around dawn and highs in the early afternoons.

THE WEEKEND

With high pressure firmly centred over southern England, Saturday should simply be a repeat of the previous couple of days, so that’s fine and dry, with temperatures round about average for October.
Sunday will then see winds swing to a N’ly direction, as a larger high pressure system in the Atlantic takes over the show. This probably won’t change the general story of dryness and sunshine, but it might make things slightly more chilly. However, under these conditions, we only have to trot down to the south coast, where the cliffs will be blocking out the wind and absorbing all available heat.
Surfers, I fear this could be the start of a flat spell. If anything is still up for grabs on Saturday, then I’d recommend making the most of it.

My next forecast update will be on Tuesday.