Storm Eleanor will sweep across Scotland through the first half of the morning. Don’t go thinking that Scotland is too far away for us to feel the effects, because this actually looks set to bring us the highest impact of the winter so far…
A nasty conjunction of the huge tide, the strongest gales and the biggest waves, will mean that tidal flooding could be really severe along the west coast. Despite the wind being offshore on the east coast (and the waves much smaller there), the water level alone could lead to some flooding there too.
Away from the coasts, there will obviously be the usual threat to road traffic from damaged trees etc, but at least the showers will be very few and far during daylight hours, so if you do venture out then you will probably stay dry.
Going into the evening and night, the wind will ease significantly but it will steadily turn wetter and wetter.
Winds: From midnight until breakfast time; WNW’ly gale force 8 to storm force 10, with gusts of over 70mph. From mid-morning until early evening; force 7-9 W’ly. Then easing right back to force 4-5 SW’ly until gales return in the small hours of Thursday.
Temperatures: 10-11C by day, increasing to 12-13C overnight.
Tides: Highs of 9.9m at 7:10am and 9.7m at 7:40pm. Low of 0.8m at 1:40pm. On top of the morning’s tide there is expected to be about 0.5m of storm surge elevation.
The waves will still be very large but much less so than on Wednesday. Combined with a marginal improvement in wind, this will mean that the west-coast tidal flooding should be slightly less severe.
As for the weather, it will be a lot wetter and more murky throughthe first half of the day. There is a slim risk that this will lead to some patchy fog at the airport. But my gut-feeling is that it will only be mist, so hopefully there shouldn’t be much disruption (if any).
By mid afternoon however, the rain should have cleared (we might even see some sunshine!), leaving only isolated showers through the rest of the day and the night to follow.
Winds: SW’ly force 7-8 (with gusts of 45-50mph), easing to WSW’ly force 5-6 through the evening and night.
Temperatures: 12-13C by day, falling to 8-9C overnight.
Tides: Highs of 10.1m at 8am and 9.7m at 8:30pm. Low of 0.9m at 2:30pm.
Apart from a few gusty showers, this day will feel a bit more down to earth; with winds, tides and rainfall all slightly reduced (emphasis on the word slightly).
Check out the surf on the north coast, and perhaps at the southern end of Vazon during the morning. This day has the potential to be truly amazing, but take care out there.
Winds: Probably starting off with a force 4-5 WSW’ly and finishing with a force 5-6 NE’ly. The timing of the transition is uncertain though.
Temperatures: Temperatures: 10C by day, 8C overnight.
Tides: Highs of 9.9m at 8:40am and 9.5m at 9:10pm. Low of 1.1m at 3:20pm.
Both days will be bitten by a very chilly NE’ly wind (probably force 6 or stronger). To escape that wind and enjoy some sunny spells, head to the south coast cliff-paths. Surfers might even find some great waves down there (at Petit Port) towards lunchtime on Saturday.
Showers might be fairly frequent on Saturday morning, but they should become fewer and further between as the weekend progresses.
The risk of tidal flooding should be completely over, but be aware that the onshore wind will bring big splashes onto the east-coast road through the middle parts of both mornings.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
A cold E’ly wind will prevail, perhaps bring some sunshine, but also bringing lots of bubbly clouds and perhaps some sleety showers.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday evening.