A big thanks to Islandmums Family Club for sponsoring my forecasts
And also a very big thank you to Kate Harbour and Andy Hutchinson for sending me these pics. The wall of cloud to the north has certainly sparked some interest. Wednesday’s forecast will explain all.
No longer any hope of this being the warmest day, quite the opposite actually, thanks to the early arrival of a soggy weather front. Patchy light rain will be over the region from the outset. Around dawn, the winds will be WSW’ly, which could mean we are covered in mist and fog. However, The airport will barely be open before winds veer NNE’ly and the cloud base should lift a few hundred feet above the island. Thus the visibility shouldn’t be a problem any more, but under a leaden sky, thermometers will struggle to climb any higher than 16-17C.
The rain will become a bit more persistent through the second half of the day, perhaps rather heavy in the evening, and then clear during the night sometime.
TIDE AND SURF
Big tides again (just under 10m), and a great wind direction for the south coast, maybe there will be a reasonable wave on offer at Petit Port in the late morning. High water will be at 9:10am, low water at 3:30pm.
A very well-timed frontal clearance, means that the Air Display should enjoy some blue sky. We might be a bit slow to lose the cloud though, so don’t expect the most fabulous clarity but it would certainly be a whole lot worse had it been a day earlier.
The breeze will be NNE’ly, which might feel a little bit cool at times in St Peter Port. Max temps should be 18C.
TIDE AND SURF
More big tides, starting to ease off a little though. The low in the late afternoon should be great for something like a trip to Lihou. Surf-wise, the evening’s pushing tide should give us a little extra size, and the wind should fall very light by then, so I’m hoping for a clean and very rideable 2-3 feet for that session.
As high pressure starts to return to the area, we will have a very light NW’ly airflow, meaning that we won’t import any warm air just yet. This, as well as rather a lot of fair-weather cumulus cloud, will mean that temperature aren’t any higher than on Thursday, but it should be pretty comfortable anyway. There is the slimmest chance that one or two of those tufty clouds might drop a brief light shower, but I think it’s far more likely that we will stay totally dry.
TIDE AND SURF
Still clean in the surf, due to the lightness of the breeze. However, the waves will only be about 1 foot, so maybe one for the kids, just before sunset. Tides about 9m, with a high in the late morning and a low in the late afternoon again.
Now the warming trend can begin, as high-pressure will be beautifully centred over our region. Light WSW’ly breezes, mixed cloud and sunshine, should take us to a comfortable 20C on Saturday (perhaps 21C in Town). Hazy sunshine on Sunday, along with gentle to moderate S’ly breezes, could take all areas at least one degree higher.
Right now, it’s looking excellent. Turning my eye to the Atlantic hurricane situation, Florence did not make the necessary moves to give us good surf but rather took a more destructive path to the US east coast. Hot on her heels, was Isaac; but Isaac is on a one-way trip to the Caribbean. However, Helena (it sure is busy down there in the Tropics) is the one who really holds promise for us. Taking a northern track up the mid Atlantic, Helena is expected to merge with mid latitude low pressure systems, to form some deep depressions to the northwest of the UK, dragging warm air from Southern Europe, right up over the Channel Islands and into Southern England. The French high pressure system, should thus strengthen, sufficiently to fend off most (or all) of the approaching weather fronts.
It’s a potentially great set-up for a bonus slice of summer at this late stage.
Furthermore, it could be a fabulous week to be a surfer, as strong small-medium sized swells, combine with offshore winds and neap tides.
Fingers crossed that Helena will follow the Forecast. Watch this space.
My next forecast update will be on Thursday evening.