A big thanks to Islandmums Family Club for sponsoring my forecasts
And of course thank you to Charlie Worsley for this latest action photo.
The Channel Islands are right in the middle of a tug of war between continental high pressure and Atlantic low pressure. This means that the band of rain that approached slowly from the west overnight, has fractured, weakened and will eventually get pushed back where it came from. Therefore, we can expect a morning of thick cloud and patchy light rain, followed by an afternoon that will probably brighten up, but it will all be a bit of a slow-paced struggle.
Max temps will be about 8C but the force 5 SSE’ly wind will make it feel much chillier than that. Then, overnight, cold continental air will really get a grip, dropping temperatures to about 3C, with an even stronger ESE’ly wind making it feel as though it’s sub-zero.
SURF AND TIDES
More super-clean waves, this time in the 5-6 foot range. High water will be 8.5m at 8:40am. Low water will be 2.7 at 3:30pm.
The first of two proper frigid days. Under a mix of cloud and hazy sunshine (but staying totally dry), temperatures will probably nudge up to about 5-6C by day and then drop to 2-3C at night. The force 6 ESE’ly wind will hold, so wrap up warm because it’s going to feel pretty bitter in exposure. The most sheltered area to take a walk or a run, will be between Pleinmont and Perelle.
SURF AND TIDES
Definitely a good day to get the boots, glove and hoods on. The waves will be amazingly ,clean and about 6-8 feet. The morning especially should be classic.High water will be 7.8 at 9:40am and low water will be 3.1m at 4pm.
Just as cold as Thursday, according to the thermometers, but probably feeling quite a bit more pleasant and there will be much more sunshine and much less wind (just a force 4 SE’ly this time).
SURF AND TIDES
Incredibly clean 8-10 foot waves throughout the morning and lunchtime. (Send me lots of photos please). High water will be 7.4m at 10:20am. Low water will be 3.5m at 4:50pm.
All change on Saturday, as a very deep low pressure system piles into the UK. I expect the UK and Irish met offices will be giving this one a name, on account of dirsruptive wind, rain and snow for them.
As for us, it will gradually bring mild air over us, such that we peak at about 12C in the evening. Weather-wise, we shall see a sunny morning turn into a cloudy afternoon,with some very wet weather soon arriving, and continuing through the night. Wind-wise, it’s going to be a force 7 S’ly, veering to a force 5 W’ly around midnight; but look out for some much stronger gusts, particularly in the late afternoon.
Sunday will then be a bit of a mostly dry, average, non-event of a day; but it will certainly be the most useful day of the weekend. Winds will be force 5 SW’ly, temperatures 11-12C and the sun should pop out for the odd brief spell.
Both days will be pretty amazing for surf, but Saturday will be the most impressive; and I expect the windsurfers and kitesurfers will be the ones who are most excited about that incredible day.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
Probably dry on Monday, turning very wet on Tuesday. Winds will stay more or less SW’ly, increasing from force 4-5 on Monday to force 6-7 on Tuesday.
Temperatures, just like the weekend, continuing to peak at about 12C by day, only dropping to about 9C overnight.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday evening.